Aztecs Earn Pac-12 Honors; Analysts Flag What Could Crack San Diego's Housing Thesis
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San Diego State football received its first Pac-12 weekly individual honors for defensive lineman Kai Wallin and linebacker Cooper DiLeva following the conference's Monday announcements — the first such weekly recognition of either player's career. The awards bring SDSU's total Pac-12 weekly honors on the season to six, a mark suggesting the program has established itself competitively in its new conference. The Aztecs' first Pac-12 game saw the team rally from a 17-3 halftime deficit to defeat Texas State 31-29 in early October, a result made more notable by a mumps outbreak that sidelined 13 players for that game.
The standard narrative about San Diego's housing market — that constrained supply and regional desirability will keep prices elevated despite lower sales volume — rests on assumptions worth scrutinizing. The most vulnerable may be the premise that sellers can afford to wait. Job relocations, estate sales, divorce proceedings, and financial distress all create sellers who cannot be patient, and a broader economic softening in 2027 would expand that pool. Even a modest increase in must-sell listings can shift leverage in a thin market.
The rate-sensitivity assumption deserves equal scrutiny. If 30-year mortgage rates remain in the 6.5-to-7-percent range for another 18 to 24 months, some buyers who have been waiting for relief will eventually either stretch their budgets to purchase at current rates or conclude they are permanently priced out and leave the region — weakening the demand side of the equation more than a 'pent-up buyer' framing implies.
Two data points offer early warning if the thesis is breaking down: days-on-market figures and new listings volume, both published monthly by C.A.R. and tracked by the county assessor's office. If days-on-market climbs consistently above 40 — indicating homes are sitting longer — sellers are losing leverage before prices fall. If new listings volume rises alongside slower sales, the supply-demand gap is narrowing and the pricing floor softens. Neither number alone tells the full story, but together they function as leading indicators ahead of any actual price movement.