Netanyahu's Coalition Arithmetic Collapses — and Washington Is Watching Closely

With a substantial share of ballots counted in Israel's Knesset election, Netanyahu's bloc holds 56 seats — well short of the 61 needed to form a governing majority in the 120-seat parliament. His opponent, former IDF Chief of Staff Gadi Eisenkot, leads an opposition bloc sitting at 48 seats, leaving neither side anywhere near a functional mandate. The result tracks pre-election surveys: three major Israeli broadcast networks projected Netanyahu's coalition at just 50 seats, while a Maariv poll gave the opposition a 54-to-48 advantage. What is emerging is either a hung parliament or a prolonged and messy coalition negotiation.

The coalition arithmetic has always run through two controversial figures: Itamar Ben-Gvir's Jewish Power party, projected to take roughly 10 seats — up from 6 in the previous Knesset — and Bezalel Smotrich's Religious Zionism bloc, tracking around 8 seats, up from 7. Adding those to Netanyahu's projected 20 Likud seats, along with smaller partners, was supposed to supply the path to 61. Now that path is blocked, and Washington appears content with the obstruction. Axios has reported that Trump aides see genuine upside in a Netanyahu loss, and Trump himself has reportedly signaled — through back channels — a preference for an Israeli government that excludes both Ben-Gvir and Smotrich.

The political bind for Netanyahu is acute. Ben-Gvir, as National Security Minister, has been deeply controversial even within Israel; Smotrich, as Finance Minister, has driven settlement expansion in the West Bank that complicates multiple diplomatic files. Washington views both men as liabilities that make deal-making harder — particularly on Saudi normalization. But dropping them is not a surgical maneuver: their combined projected seats represent a significant portion of the coalition math Netanyahu needs. Distancing himself from them to satisfy Washington means losing the votes required to govern; keeping them strains the relationship with the Trump administration at precisely the moment he needs U.S. backing on Gaza reconstruction, Iran policy, and hostage negotiations.

The opposition is not in a comfortable position either. Eisenkot brings real security credibility as a former IDF chief, but 48 seats is no closer to 61 than 56. The likeliest outcomes — a rotation government or a national unity arrangement — carry their own historical warnings. Israel's 2020 rotation government between Netanyahu and Benny Gantz collapsed spectacularly after roughly 18 months. With 34% of ballots still uncounted, the final seat totals remain uncertain, and the coming coalition negotiations will likely prove more revealing than the election results themselves.