F-35s for Riyadh, a Called-Off Strike, and the Multifront Middle East Conflict
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The State Department approved a $24.3 billion sale of 48 F-35 fighter jets to Saudi Arabia despite US intelligence warnings that China could access sensitive stealth technology through Saudi Arabia's existing relationships with Beijing. The F-35 contains some of the most closely held military technology the United States possesses, and the intelligence community reportedly opposed the sale. That it proceeded anyway reflects how the administration is weighing strategic partnership with Riyadh against counterintelligence risk — a calculation with long-term consequences for the aircraft's operational security.
Saudi Crown Prince MBS reportedly urged Trump to intervene militarily against the Houthis, yet Trump reversed course twice in two weeks, calling off a strike operation after bombs were reportedly already loaded onto warplanes. That reversal carries its own risks: the Houthis now know the United States was preparing to strike and chose not to, potentially recalibrating their sense of how much risk they can absorb. The Houthis' two-week offensive was described as reshaping Yemen's Red Sea coast, and flames and smoke were reported near Riyadh's King Khalid International Airport after overnight air-raid alerts, with flight-tracking service Flightradar24 placing the airport at its maximum disruption index.
China has been privately pressing Iran to rein in the Houthis — a development that receives insufficient attention alongside the broader conflict narrative. Beijing's concern appears to be practical: the Houthi Red Sea offensive threatens global energy routes that affect Chinese commercial interests as directly as anyone else's. CENTCOM's announcement that one billion barrels of oil have been escorted through the Strait of Hormuz under US military protection represents both a military achievement and an ongoing commitment of significant naval resources to an operation with no defined endpoint, effectively providing a free insurance service for global energy supply during an active regional conflict.
A UN mission finding that US strikes on an Iranian school constitute war crimes adds a legal accountability dimension that will shape diplomatic conversations for years. The UN lacks enforcement authority over the United States, but such findings create legal exposure for military commanders and provide political cover for adversaries seeking to delegitimize American military action. How the administration chooses to respond — contesting the findings, ignoring them, or engaging with the process — will matter for coalition maintenance with partners who remain sensitive to international humanitarian law.