Houthis Seize the Red Sea Coast — and the U.S. Talks to Them in Secret
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The Houthis have captured Yemen's entire Red Sea coastline — the full western edge of the Arabian Peninsula from the Bab-el-Mandeb strait northward — geography that controls roughly 12 percent of global trade. This week they also claimed missile and drone strikes against Saudi Aramco facilities and a Saudi air base. Any successful strike that disrupts Aramco production, even temporarily, sends immediate signals through futures markets; combined with existing inflationary pressure from the Iran conflict, additional attacks on Middle East energy infrastructure represent a compounding economic risk.
The United States held secret talks with Houthi representatives at the U.S. Embassy in Muscat on Sunday, revealed this week. The meeting — coming days after the Houthis consolidated their Red Sea coastline control — reportedly focused on the release of seized vessels and personnel rather than a broader political settlement. The willingness to hold direct talks, even covertly, represents a shift from treating the Houthis purely as a terrorist organization to be countered militarily toward a recognition of operational reality: if they control the coastline and can credibly threaten shipping, any party that wants predictable commerce through the Red Sea must deal with them in some capacity.
Iran's President Pezeshkian appeared at the BRICS summit in New Delhi this week claiming the U.S. failed to topple Tehran, accusing Washington of blocking food and medicine, and vowing Iran would not surrender — rhetoric that does not reflect a government that believes it is losing. That posture is driving Houthi behavior as well; with Iran presenting itself as having survived the worst of the military campaign with its political structure intact and its regional proxies operating effectively, there is little incentive for caution.
The most geopolitically charged specific finding of the week involves a U.S. linking of Chinese satellite imagery to an Iranian strike that killed three American troops. If confirmed, that would mean China provided intelligence — through commercial or military satellite imagery — that enabled a lethal operation against U.S. personnel. The administration has not yet said publicly what response, if any, it is contemplating for that finding.